Brave New World’ looks to bring ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ success back to the MCU. Will it?

Before 2023, it would have been unthinkable for a Marvel Studios film to flop at the box office. Regardless, The Marvels failed to, well, marvel audiences, earning a bleak $206.1 million worldwide, while Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania disappointed the studio with only $476.1 million worldwide, failing to break even. Because MCU movies have gargantuan production budgets and marketing costs, anything less than a blockbuster can lead to the studio losing a lot of money.

Marvel’s lone bright spot in 2023 was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which hit $845.6 million worldwide before director James Gunn went off to helm Superman as the new co-CEO of DC Studios. Deadpool & Wolverine was Marvel’s only movie in 2024, a massive success that grossed $1.338 billion worldwide. But it was also an outlier that had two popular stars, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, reprising their beloved roles from 20th Century Fox’s Marvel films. Aside from the two upcoming Avengers movies, no other MCU film has anywhere near the hype that Deadpool & Wolverine had.

That’s why Captain America: Brave New World will be the true test of Marvel’s box office comeback when it hits theaters this week. It’s the first film in the Captain America franchise to feature Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson in the title role, and Mackie’s star power is far below that of Reynolds or Jackman. It may not be fair to compare the two films, but Marvel has set a high bar for itself. If Brave New World falls somewhere between Quantumania and The Marvels, then it’s going to be considered another flop.

Thus far, the opening weekend box office projections for Brave New World are encouraging, while the reviews are less so. The fate of the entire MCU may not be on Cap’s shoulders, but the pressure is going to be on Marvel this weekend and next.

By the numbers

According to Variety, Brave New World is looking at a $90 million to $95 million North American opening over the long Presidents’ Day weekend, with another $110 million added from the rest of the world. That would put it around the same domestic opening that Captain America: The Winter Soldier — Mackie’s MCU debut — had in 2014.

But having a great opening weekend isn’t enough anymore — as demonstrated by the sudden collapse of Quantumania the weekend following Presidents’ Day in 2023. The third Ant-Man and the Wasp film had a series-best domestic opening with $120.4 million, only to dramatically fall 69% during its second weekend and another 61% during weekend No. 3. That shocking drop-off demonstrated that even Marvel movie fans could turn away from a franchise film if it doesn’t meet their expectations. Without repeat business from the most dedicated superhero movie lovers, Brave New World may potentially suffer a big fall during its second weekend.

Among the three prior Captain America movies, Captain America: Civil War (2016) had the highest opening weekend in North America with $179.1 million. That number was reached because the film had Robert Downey Jr. in a co-headlining role, as well as appearances by almost every cast member from the Avengers movies and the MCU debuts of Spider-Man and Black Panther. By comparison, Brave New World has the Red Hulk as played by Harrison Ford’s roided-out CGI double.

Reportedly Brave New World had more than a $180 million budget. Unofficially that number may have gone up dramatically after multiple rounds of reshoots that reshaped the movie — not to mention marketing costs. At least one performer — WWE’s Seth Rollins — has indicated that he’s no longer in Brave New World after the new edits were made. Meanwhile, Giancarlo Esposito’s Sidewinder was a late addition to the movie, as his scenes were filmed during the reshoots.

To be considered a success, Brave New World will likely need to come near The Winter Soldier’s $714.4 million total. If the film can’t do that, get ready for an onslaught of articles questioning whether Mackie can lead the Captain America franchise in additional films.

Early word of mouth

Marvel waited much longer than usual to release the review embargo for Captain America: Brave New World. So far, Rotten Tomatoes has it at 53%, and the Metacritic review roundup has it at 42%.

There aren’t a lot of reviews that are effusive with praise for Brave New World. Comic Book says it “might not stand toe to toe with Captain America: Winter Soldier, but it certainly follows in its footsteps, much to the benefit of moviegoers.”

Newsday damns it with faint praise by noting that when “compared to some of the studio’s recent misfires, this new entry is at least passable.” The fanboy-friendly site Collider goes even further and states, “Captain America: Brave New World may just be one of the weakest entries in the decades-spanning franchise.”

Moviegoers will ultimately make up their own minds about whether this film is good, and even Deadpool & Wolverine had some bad reviews. Having said that, the early buzz for Brave New World is far from ideal.

An essential chapter of the MCU?

Strangely enough, Brave New World functions as a sequel to The Incredible Hulk, the second movie in the MCU, which was released in 2008. Ford is taking over the role of President Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross from William Hurt, who died in 2022, while Liv Tyler is making her MCU return as Ross’s daughter, Betty. Additionally, Tim Blake Nelson is reprising his role as Samuel Sterns, who has been mutated into the evil genius known as the Leader.

Brave New World is also the first film to follow up on threads from Eternals, another Marvel movie that didn’t break out among fans. In theory, that may make Brave New World an essential chapter of the MCU, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that fans will embrace it.

By Feb. 24, we’ll know for sure whether Brave New World is a hit or whether Marvel will have to pin the studio’s 2025 hopes on Thunderbolts and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Either way, Captain America is going to have his work cut out for him.

Captain America: Brave New World opens in theaters Feb. 14.